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Why Should Iran Back Down?
Senior Obama adviser, Valerie Jarrett, recently told ABC News that "we have a strong force in the making, and Iran will back down." It's possible she has intelligence unavailable to the general public, but this sounds more like wishful thinking. We've already sailed past Obama's "deadline" for forming this coalition, and Russia still shows no signs of cooperation. We've intervened against Israel's leadership to block a preemptive strike by denying our allies access to US controlled airspace. And Ahmadinejad, the duly elected leader of Iran has demonstrated no intent to comply with UN sanctions.
Far from ending his nuclear program, Ahmadinejad has expanded it. He continues threatening to destroy Israel, and I have no reason to doubt his sincerity. On the home front, he has only become more brazen in repressing political dissent. Government-ordered phone service outages are not uncommon. To back down now would be completely against Ahmadinejad's character and stated intentions. Like a playground bully, he isn't going anywhere until someone hits him back.
And why should he? Obama has demonstrated little support for Israel, and despite his bombastic language and talk of "sanctions," our President has been thoroughly unwilling to take any decisive action. We're in the middle of an arms negotiation that will vastly deplete our ability to protect our own nation under the false premise that surrendering our nukes will convince power-hungry dictators not to build their own. In other words, Ahmadinejad hasn't faced any real consequences for threatening to expand the Mediterranean by around 8,500 square miles. If he's getting everything he wants, what motivation does he have to change?
Behavioral patterns are a real phenomenon. Refusing to acknowledge the pattern will not eliminate the risk. I'm not entirely sure what we should do about Iran, but relying on a body that gave Ahmadinejad a pulpit to preach against Israel seems like a poor place to start.